Putin on a Show: US & Russia face off in Riyad & Europe's new two-front war
‘We know they are lying. They know they are lying. They know that we know they are lying. We know that they know that we know they are lying. And still they continue to lie.’
The quote from Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, should be the prerequisite for any nation to know what to expect when dealing with Russia. So let’s dive in:
After nearly three years of diplomatic deep freeze, the US and Russia are back on talking terms. And talk they did. For 4.5 hours.
Senior representatives from both capitals met at a Saudi palace in Riyadh for talks on a future Russo-Ukraine deal following last week’s Trump-Putin phone call.
👀 Who was there?
Trump dispatched Marco Rubio (his Secretary of State), Mike Waltz (his National Security Advisor), and Steve Witkoff (his Special Envoy and long-time confidant), while…
Putin sent Sergey Lavrov (his Foreign Minister), Yuri Ushakov (his Foreign Policy Advisor and former U.S. Ambassador), and Kirill Dmitriev (the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, which is steadily running dry).
Hosting the talks were Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan and National Security Advisor Musaad al-Aiban—who, after setting the stage, promptly left the room. Because that’s what mediators do.
📌 What’s the objective here?
The official line from Washington is that these aren’t the negotiations—just the precursor to them. Rubio, for instance, framed it as the “first step of a long and difficult journey,” emphasizing that this week serves as a test to gauge whether Russia is genuinely interested in ending the war.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin’s take, via Putin’s spokesman Peskov, is that the discussions are “first and foremost” about restoring full-scale U.S.-Russia relations, with potential negotiations on ending the war coming second.
If you’ve ever wondered what slow-moving diplomacy looks like—this is it.
But, of course, you don’t need to be a geopolitical expert to know that even before formal talks begin, every word exchanged helps the other side fine-tune its approach to get what it wants.
With that in mind, it’s hard to overlook last week’s series of unilateral U.S. pronouncements—ruling out Ukraine’s NATO membership, effectively conceding Russia’s territorial gains, and signaling a scaled-back U.S. security presence in Europe—all seemingly offered without any reciprocal commitments from Moscow.
📋 Anyway, what then came out of yesterday’s Riyadh talks?
According to Washington’s official readout, the U.S. and Russia reached agreements on three key points:
Establishing a channel to manage “irritants” in U.S.-Russia relations.
Assigning "high-level teams" to draft a peace agreement that is “enduring, sustainable, and acceptable to all sides.”
Exploring “future cooperation on matters of mutual geopolitical interest and economic opportunities” that could arise after the war.
Rubio later clarified that the second point would include “engagement and consultation with Europe and Ukraine.”
Meanwhile, Russian state media reported that the discussions also touched on preparations for a potential in-person meeting between Putin and Trump, though they provided no specifics.
Both sides then offered some additional context outside the talks:
Russia’s Lavrov dismissed the idea of European peacekeepers in Ukraine as “completely unacceptable” and confirmed that sanctions relief was discussed. Dmitriev expanded on potential U.S. economic opportunities in a post-sanctions Russia, particularly in the oil and gas sector.
Rubio stated he was “convinced” Russia was serious about negotiating peace, though he acknowledged that the EU would have to be involved “at some point” due to its sanctions regime.
Trump, speaking from Florida, responded to a reporter’s question about Ukraine’s exclusion from the talks with a few pointed remarks:
He just wants the killing to stop.
Ukraine “should never have started it” and “allowed the war to go on.”
“The leader in Ukraine is down at 4% approval ratings. Wouldn’t the people of Ukraine need to have an election?”
🌍 So… how has the world reacted?
🇺🇦 Ukraine
President Zelensky has expressed frustration over the U.S. engaging in talks with Ukraine’s invaders “about Ukraine again—and without Ukraine.” He’s now seeking clarification from U.S. special envoy Keith Kellogg, who arrives in Kyiv today (Wednesday), though questions remain about Kellogg’s influence at this stage—especially given that he wasn’t included in the Riyadh negotiations.
There has also been widespread shock within Ukraine, not only at Trump’s suggestion that Ukraine bears responsibility for Putin’s invasion but also at his call for Ukrainian elections.
For one, Zelensky’s approval rating (52%) is higher than Trump’s.
Second, Ukraine’s constitution explicitly prohibits elections during martial law—logistically, it’s impossible for the country’s million-strong military to vote while actively defending against an invasion.
Third, polling suggests that any viable challenger to Zelensky would hardly be pro-Russian, making the call for elections seem more like an attempt to undermine him than a genuine push for democratic process.
And fourth, it’s the kind of demand more commonly heard from Putin himself—who, meanwhile, has either exiled or eliminated any meaningful political opposition at home.
🇪🇺 Europe
Meanwhile, the mood in Europe is just as grim, as European leaders find themselves sidelined in the Trump administration’s Ukraine diplomacy. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, for instance, told her parliament that the current security landscape is now “worse than the Cold War,” echoing a broader sense of alarm over how quickly Europe’s strategic footing is shifting. Some now even fear that Trump could go as far as conceding to a Russian demand to withdraw U.S. troops from NATO’s Baltic allies.
After failing to reach a unified stance during Monday’s emergency meeting in Paris, EU leaders—along with Norway and Canada—are regrouping today (Wednesday) for a follow-up session.
🇬🇧 One of the more forceful voices in defending Ukraine has come from an unlikely source: British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. In a rare show of assertiveness on Sunday, Starmer announced he was open to sending British troops to Ukraine—an unprecedented step, but one that aligns with the tough stance of his predecessors.
Both Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak maintained a firm, uncompromising approach toward Russia, dating back to at least 2014 (and arguably earlier, but that’s a story for another time). The UK has also been Europe’s most proactive country in training Ukrainian forces and supplying weapons—making Starmer’s position less surprising than it might initially seem.
🇷🇺 Russia
Meanwhile, Moscow continues to sound triumphant and in control, though that’s not due to any success on the battlefield—six months on, Putin still can’t take back his own Kursk territory that the Ukrainians counter-seized in August 2024, while any momentum has slowed over in Ukraine’s east. Lavrov is (as above) issuing demands nonetheless.
🤔 What to make of all this?
One way to look at all this is that Trump presumably believes he can succeed where the last four US presidents have failed by finally pulling off a US ’reset’ with Russia:
Clinton had his bromance with Yeltsin; (🔗 See video)
Bush Jr famously “got a sense of Putin’s soul”; (🔗 See video)
Obama ditched a missile shield in an attempt to reverse a “dangerous drift” in US-Russia ties, and…
Biden even met Putin personally in Geneva.
But along the way, Putin launched an invasion of Georgia in 2008, seized Crimea in 2014, and escalated to a full-scale assault on Ukraine in 2022. He also bolstered Assad’s regime from 2015 onward and worked to destabilize former Soviet republics like Moldova and Georgia—countries that hadn’t yet secured NATO’s protective umbrella (a process Putin conveniently labels as "NATO expansion").
So perhaps the real issue isn’t failed U.S. attempts to reset relations with Russia, but rather Moscow’s persistent and clear ambition to reclaim influence over its former sphere—by force when necessary. (Refer back to the quote at the beginning of the article).
✅ Also worth noting:
Beijing has remained relatively quiet, possibly reflecting the regional limits of its power, its own complex history with Russia, its domestic woes, and probably some unease around what US-Russia ties might mean for Beijing’s own strategy. I’ll leave you with these two charts below:
Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan just hosted President Zelensky, again declaring that Ukraine’s territorial integrity is indisputable.
Meanwhile, the Saudis will notch their hosting up as a win, in an attempt not only to rehabilitate Riyadh’s image after assassinating Jamal Khashoggi, but also to beat the rival Emiratis to regional and global powerbroker status.
US intelligence officials have told NBC that Putin is just going through the motions with these talks and still thinks he can eventually control all of Ukraine.